Managerial turnover means we need new ways to predict Premier League fixtures

With 110 matches to feature two coaches appointed this year, tactical history may be more insightful than teams’ head-to-head recordsNew managers are facing an almost one-in-two chance of being fired before the end of the season, a finding from Guardian analysis that shows 22 of the last 50 permanent Premier League managers to leave their roles lasted less than a year.The betting markets reflect this reality. Six of the eight Premier League managers deemed most likely by bookmakers to be next to leave their post were appointed in 2026. Football management is a very precarious employment position.

It looks inevitable that some of the 11 men who have only been in their role since earlier this year will fall before the final hurdle of the 2026-27 season – even if none of them are the first to move on. Continue reading...